Gold Slides Ahead of Fed Decision as Analysts Warn of $3,800 Risk

Gold's all-time high was $5,598 per ounce reached Jan. 29, 2026 — not $5,378 on March 2 as previously reported. Analyst Ilya Spivak warned a break below $3,900 could send gold toward $3,800. The Fed's benchmark rate target range is 3.75–4.00% following the September hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is now named as the person whose comments will be watched. The PCE is expected to show a 0.5% headline monthly increase and 3.1% annual core increase. The US CPI rose to 3.70% in September from 3.40%. China's central bank added 23 tonnes of gold in September. Swiss gold exports rose 6% in September to 165.2 tonnes, with ~126 tonnes shipped to the UK — highest since 2012. US midterm elections Nov. 3 are being monitored. Gold's steepest weekly drop in four months occurred last week at around 4%.